EconoFACTSMarch 04, 2025 | 09:35Trade War Impact: Take Two

EconoFACTSMarch 04, 2025 | 09:35Trade War Impact: Take Two

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EconoFACTSMarch 04, 2025 | 09:35Trade War Impact: Take Two

@financepresentations2 days ago

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T h P ei dn i noe t h erset vkd e I n e nt i oa E e gny Eoo i c Pw r s A t tra nl m rec cnm oe c (EP) t o ap y t hs t a i ff . A t e dc a i n a nt i oa e e gny I EA pl ee r s f r el r g a nl m rec a t t e su hr n br dr de t o h ote o e u ' t e i nu o i l l ea a i es ad i l l i c td us h flx f gl l n n i r g' , h P ei dn epne t h s t o cvr terset xadd i oe ' t e pb i c ha t h c i s s o h ul el r i f d et h de t o t h ue o f et ay ad o hr i l l i c t d us asu es f n nl n te i rg' . A n d sei fia l y , pccl , ' t e f a l u e o C nd t o d m r e t o a r et , si z, dt a n o h i r f aaa o o r s ee ei, r o t hr we i n e cp DO [ d u t r a ci n o gn zt i os , o hr d u ad hm n t r a ce s c i ma s a l a g, ad d us e i s tret Ts rg ffi k g r ai a n] te rgn u a ffi kr, r i nl t re n rg' . H o w vr , i n ee y et e dy ' s anucm n t ht t a i ff w r e i ned p oed n, t h P ei dn sget e t ht at o p at s ad o hr s sol d r e oa e sra noneet a r s e de rcei g e rset ugs d a u l n n te hu l ct p r out i o t o t h U . t o ao d t a i ff , r va i n t h t r e r t i oa e bh n t h m sr e. dc n e . S vi r seel g e u a nl ei d e e au s

T h o i g nl eeu i v o dr a s si d er i a xct e re l oa: ' So u d Cnd a r e a i a e t h P ei dn m y i nr es o epn i n soe t h dt i e i m oe udr h l aa tl t… e rs et a c aer xad cp eu s psdne t h s o dr ' i r e . C a nd hs anuc e 2% r e a i a o y t a i ff aaa non d5 tl tr r s o C15 b n w r t h o i m o t s f r o t h U . : $0 b n e et i v M r c 4 ad t h n$5 l o f pr me.S 3 l ffc e ah n e r e a i n n $2 b n a t e 2 dy. Svr a p oi ne hv a s anucd o a e p an n nn t a i ff esr e. mig15l f r 1as eel rvcsaelonone r r lnigo- r m aus

I t s ucr t a n w e hr ' ne i hte : 1 ) t e U . w l h . S i l r e a i a e tl t f r C nd' s r e a i a i o; 2 t e A mi s r a i o w l he t h cl l s f r m. S bs nse f o o aaa tl t n )h d i nt t n i l ed ea o U. ui ess r e xm t i os ep n ; a n 3 i f t e eeu i v o dr w l sr v v d) h xct e re i l uie l ea l ca l egs g hl ne . H o w vr , b ee y A p r i l1 , hr e w l b t h e r eo t s dl i vr e t o t h te i l e re pr e e d e P r ei dn ( udr t h A e i c F r s T ae Pl i c m m r adm t ht sol d b f u l o t a i ff eo m na i os bce b i net i gt i os ( o set ne e m r ai t rd o y e o nu ) a hu e l f r r cmedt n akdy vs a n r s on - t o b) , st t i n t e s ae f o m r e Sc i o 21 ( sf eur d , Sc i o 22 ( nt i oa scr i t y ad Sc i o 31 ( uf a r t r ae p at i cs o -e e gh tg r o et n0 a ga ) et n3 a nl eu ) n et n0 n i d rc e) t a i ff . I cneune r snosqec, t a i ff o C nd ad o hr cut r i e cu d b a on f o a w i l e r s n aaan te on sol erud r h , a n cu l d g pt et i a l y h ge . I n f at , ' r c p oa ' do oon l i hr c ei rcl t a i ff o i nut r - sei fi t a i ff m b ' s akb e o t o o t h i n t i a 2% ey r s r dsypcc r s a y e tcal' n pf e i l 5 l v.

G i vn t h s bcd o, w a e aj ut i n or f o eat s a ot l i nd bl o. Ti s i s c er l y a fli d s t ut i o, ad f u t hr aj ut m n s m y b e i akrp er ds gu rcs, su e ewh la u i a n n r e ds et a e r eu i r e i n t e w es aed a m r e i n o m t i o cm s t o l i gt i n t e m o C nd' s ficl r epne a w l l a ay pt et i a U . q d h ek ha, s o fr a no e h r s f aaa sa sos, s e sn on l . S c on t e m au e, o ee a psi b e o- r a p f o t h t a i ff . Fr nw w a e i no pr a i n t h i n o m t i o o hn, ad asmg t ht t h u r esrs r vn osl ff m r e r s o o, er cro t g e fr a nnad n su i n a e t a i ff w l b i n l ae f ra ya . Te m i n d ff r ecs f r o or i n t i a t ae a m n h ao a e a t h C nd a eoo y s s a t i n pi n w s r s i l e p c o er h a i e ne mu i l k ot g r: ) eaaincnm ' tr got a s t r ne t hn epc e, i nl ui n sl i d GP g o t h a on t h t u n o t h ya ad s u d j o g o t h a t h s a t o 22, ad b t h U . ogr a xetd cdgo D rw rud e r f eer n try brw t etr f 05 n ) e .S e cn o y w s sf t e t hn epc e i n er l y 22, a sn i m n w s c er l y su i n t h og Fb ur y o m a o r a xetd a 05 set et a la or g ruhera.

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      T r u p s t a i ffa m r w l cm dw hr d o Cnd' s eoo y I f t h anucd t a i ff r e a n i n p ae f o oe ya , t h eoo y w u d m' r hme i l oeona naaa cnm . enone r s m i l c r n er ecnm ol f ae t h rs o a m dr a e r ees o. Aop e qa t e s o cn r at i o a e w l l w h n t h r el mf psi b l i t y W h l i t t l e cndne g vn t h c eikf oe t csi n cul ur r f ot c nr e i t i e a o os i . i t ofiec i e e l ak o h s o i cl p eeet , c f i t r a rcdn w e et i m t e t ht t e t rff w l r dc r a GP r o t h b r ogl y 1 5 pt s t o a on 0 5 i n 22 s a a h ai s i l eueel D g w y uh . p rud. % 05 . T h s r eet s i flc r eu cd dm n f o Cnd a epr t s t o t h U S ( w i c acut f o aot a fi t h o GP , d s ut e spl y ca n i m ei n bs ns d e e ad r aai nxo e . . hhcon r bu f f D) irpdup his pdguies a c i v t ad cnu p i o, ad hi gt ee ucr t a n y t ht r eue bs ns i net m n . I t a s r eet s a r eut i o i n dm s i c dm n de t iy n osm t n n e h ndne i t a dcsuies vs et l o flc dc n o et e adu t o h ge p i cs s e mg f r o r e a i a o y t a i ff ad a w ae C nd a dl l a . Te et i m t e g o t h h t i s a b t l i gt e t hn t h Bn o i hr r e tmi n mtl tr r sn ekr aai no r h s adrw i i hr a e ak f C a nd' s r eet sea i o ( i t cl l e f o aot a 2 5 pt s r eut i o i n GP r o t h f o t h fi s ya ) , de t o t h l esr 1% a i ffn ee g aa cn cnr a d r bu . p dc n D g w r ert er u e se 0 tr o nry p r out s a w l l a t h f c t ht C nd' s r e a i a i o i s m sr e. H w vr , w r eon z t h d ffi u t y i n m dl l i n sc a et r e e eet , dc, s e s eat a aaa tl t n e au d oee e cgie ei cl oe guhnx m vn a n cr t a n sc o s m y nt bhv i n a p ei c al e o l i na pt t e n e g , t h h gl y i n er a e at o i nut r y de i etr a o eae rdtb r er a r-. . eih tgtdu ds .

      C P I i na t i o i s epc e t o r i s l es t hn oe pt t h s ya fl n xetd e s a n p i er fo t h cr r et 1 9 r a e i n Jna y Bt g vn g o i n s ak i n t h eoo y ad rmeu n .%t aur. u ie rwglc ecnm n a l i k e y m r e t hn oe pt i nr es i n t h l o- a- n p cae e u nm l om n t r a e t o a on 8 epye t rud% , na t i o p esr e sol d r e a n sbud a l o i n f o sm i fl nrsushu mi ude, l wg r oe m o dr a i o i n 22. Pr t l y l i m i n t h eoo i c pi n w l b a w ae cr r ec, l o e i n e et r a e, ad a epc e gvr n et r e i e et n 06 a i t g ecnm a il e ekr u ny wr trs ts n nxetdoe m n l f p r or a f o j ol es w r kr s ad aet e bs nse. Tee spo t s a og w h t h asm d r eoi n o t a i ff a t e oe ya , sol d l ed gmr bs oe n ffcduiess hs upr , l n it esu e vkgf r sf r n er hu a t o a m o ds t r cvr y i n 22, w h ae ae g ot h s i l l c oe t o 0 5 nx ya . e eoe 06 i t vrg rw t l s . %et er

      F r o a sc o a l es a m etrl n, w i d r ag o C nd a i nut r i e dr i v a l es hl f o t hi r r vne f r o U . epr t s e nef aain ds se et at a f e eeu m.S xo . N e a t e t o o t h l i s i s rh pf e t m o t o vh c e, bt o hr s w h h g epsr e i nl ue at o pr t s c o h n, w o p out s ce i cl s m d c ns r ubr , i r o ad s el , r ei l s u te i t i h xou c d u a , l t i g odrdc, hma, eiie, be nn te a l u i nm m ci nr y , cm u e s ad e et r i cl eu p et . I n ar i cl t u e t oac, g enoss sgr , ad sa od s ad ot . W i l e t h o l mu, ahe optr, n lc a qi m n g u r, bco rehue, ua n efo tn u h e i i nu s r y hs vr y h g epsr e w asm t h 1% a i ff i l l hv l i t t l e dm ei n e et g vn a cm i nt i o o a w ae l on e Cnd a d t a e i h xou , esue e0 tr w ae a pngffc ie o ba nf ekr oi , aai n p r oue r p i c ct s ad U . r enr y cs asr p i o. Te hui n m r kt r eoe y i n Cnd, a g aul a w epc e i t t o b i n t h dc r eu, n . S fie ot bo t n h os g a e cvr aaa s rda s exetd e e a be ne o t a i ff , cu d b dm ee t h s ya b t h cndne spi n t r ae w r , bf o e r eu i n i n 22 o l o e m r t gg r a e. s c f r s ol e a pnd i er y eofiec-apg d a e r smg 06n wr o ae ts

      T h e P r ei dn cu d i nr es t a i ff f u t hr set ol c ae r s r e i n r sos e t o r e a i a o y at i os o o sei fi i nut r i e ( s el , a u i nmopr , l u br , ad epn tl tr c n r npc c ds s te l mu , cpe me n a u o) , w i c w u d r a s t h r i s o a dee eoo i c dw t u n Te ts hh ol i e e kf epr cnm on r. h p o et i al og t e ma ae tn l n- r dm g t C nd' s eoo y cno b oaaa cnmant e d i s i se, e t hr M n bs nse w l i nr es p out i o o t h o hr s d o t h br dr t o ao d t a i ff . Te ucr t a n y a oe aot msdi e. ayuiess il caerdc nn ete ief eoe vi r s h ne it l n bu f u t hr p o et i oi s cu d pt a ci l l o bs ns i net m n f o ya s w i c i s w y t h gvr n et ' s r epne sol d a s b d r et e a r e rtc nmol u h nuies vs et r er, hh h eoe m n sos hu loei c dt e no u ai n p out i v t y ehni n i net m n . Ti s w s a r ed a ncsi t y bf o e t a i ff g vn t h nw. S ami s r a i o' s p and p o c rggrdc i -nacg vs et h a l ay ees e r r s ie ee U. d int t n l ne rb ui ns s pl i c e, i nl ui n cr pr a e t a ct s ad l i gt e r eu a i os se o i s c dgo o t xu n hr glt n.

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      D i r c epsr e t o U S t r ae vr i e ar os t h cut r y ad s w l t h i m at . et xou . . d a sc s eon , n o il e pc B . C . cr r i e a r l a i vl y l o sa e o gos epr t s i n i t s a s et e whr f od xo e cn o y , ad r ogl y hl f o t hs a e ds i nd f o m r kt s ot s d t h U , bt sm i nut r i e ( e g , f o et r y w l cm udr dr es o m n uh a f oer et e r ae ui e e .S u oe ds s . . rs ) i l oe ne u s. A l br t aSsa cea n e , akthw ad n N e w onl ad fudn , b ea ue o hf t y ee g epr t s cr r y t h l a gs epsr e ( epr t s t o t h U . a e 2% o 3%f c s f e nry xo , a e ret xou xo e . S r 0- t- 5 o G D) ; bt , t e l i gt r1% a i ffn sc p out s ad t h asm t i o t ht a pr t i o w l b pse t o t h U S cnu e , l evs t h i m at t o P u h he 0 tr o uhrdc , n esu p n a o n i l easd e . . osm r ae e pc r u s a l e i n t hs p oi ne- t l es i n t h so t r u. nml r eerv csa at ehr n

      N o n ee g U S epr t epsr e i s h get t h ogot C n r a Cnd. I n - nry . . xo xou i hs ruhu et l aaa O n t a i o r , o ea p e U S gos epr t s t o 1%f GP w h a fr xm l , . . od xo p7 o D it w i d r ag o i nut r i e epsd ( e g , at o, m ci nr y m t a s ad cnu e gos . e nef ds sxoe .. u s ahe, el n osm r od) Q u ee c b ' s i nut r i a ma s ad m nf at u e gos ds l e tl n au c rdod w i l lb vl nr al e a w l eue b, s i l M a n t oa i b ' s d vr s m nf at u i n bs. i e e au c r gae A t l at i c C nd n aaa i s sse p i b e bcue o a f e h gl y cnet r a e uc t l eas f wi h- ocn td i nu s r i e, ee i ft h b od eoo i c i m at apa s s a l e -i n t h N w onl ad & Lb ao fihr y ad PI pcae f od gos d t s vn era cnm pc per m l r t hk e efudn ardr se, n E akgd o od.

      A l l o d w tl , e e xe c t h eoo i c i m at t o h t hr ds i n O t a i o ad t h r et o C n r l C nd p t ecnm pc i a et nr n e s f eta aaa ; s i gi fiat l y i m at i n sm cnet r a e ncn pc goeocn td i nu s r i e i n A l at i c C nd ad B C w i l e da i n a l esr i mei a e b o i n o l - p oui n p oi ne. d t s t n aaan . . , h el g se mdt lw i rdcgrvcs

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          T h e B a n o C nd' s r a e ct i n l a e Jna y w s pr t l y pr t r ae a a r i s m ngm n m v kf aaa t u t aur a a o yds k aaeet oe cm e l l e b t h r i s n r i s o U . t rff . op dy e ig kf .Sai s W i t h t a rs nwe n r el i zd w r ekn t h Bn w l l en aa nt t h epc e s gi fiat eoo i c s o dw ad s ep y ecl a i n htiko bi g a e, e co e ak il a gi s exetdincn cnm lwonn tel sat g r i s o r csi o a og w h asc a e d s na i oa y p esr e. H w vr , kfeesnln it soitdiiflt nr rsu s oee t hr e w l l b a m au e o cu i o i n t h pl i c es n e i e esr f at n eo y ai g , w i t h i na t i oa y p esr e s m l t aeul y p odd b r e a i a o y t a i ff ad Cnd a dl l a dp ei a i o. P ei os y w p o et e t h Bn w u d fl nr rsu si u nos rde y tl tr r sn aai no r erct n rv ul, erjcd eak ol c u t e pl i c r t e t w m r e t i m t h s cc e b 2 bs i n Ar i l ad Jl y ( ed n a 2 5% t h o ya o o e s i yl , y5p p n u ni gt . 0) . W e nw l ok f o t h qa t e - o n pc t o o o r eur rpi t ae c ot i ne i n ec o t h nx f or m e i ns ut i l Jl y t ai n t h r t e t o 2 0 . n u ahf eet u et g n u, kg ea .% Te nt rs i s t ht w eet ul l y g ee l o e , i ft h Bn i s h e i k a evna ovn wr eak c o f o t al e w h t h p ea l i n i na i o bcd o l a e t h s ya . mr b it ervi g flt nakrp tr i er

          T h e F e i s epc e t o s a o t h s dl i ns f o a nm e o FM m e i ns d xetd ty n ei e e r u br f OC et g ad t hn r eu e a qa t e l y 2- b r a e ct c i p i n Sp e br , n e sm ur r 5 p t u l etm e a l bi t w h rss o a er l i e m v sol d t h eoo y l oe m r e m m n u . Ti s m as e it i k f na r oehu ecnm s o oetmh en C a nd- U S oe n gt r a e sr ed aa . . vri h t p as a e gi n t o r og w i dn ee f u t hr , e vn r e t et i n t h s g e -2 2 bs l ee . W h m d u - ad l og t e maaa U S bn y e d sr ed s ah n t h og r eo d ngt i v 5p vl i t ei mn n- r Cnd- . . odi l p asm si g ruh cr ea e l ee l s er l i e t i s ya ad r e a n n we t h m r kt hs be sni n et r e e oe n gt sr ed t o. v a rh er n m i i g i d, e ae a enesgx m vri h p as o T h i s w l n dut ad t o t h i l oob d e C a nd a dl l a ' s w e aino r os a og w t h fi m es i n t h g enak a A e i c' s t a i ff g g oa . W se t h l on e ae ai n a on C1 4 b l n i r ns erebc s m r a r s ol bl ee e oi vrggrud $.9y t h s at u n ad cn t r u e ot a r u aoe t h C1 5 l ee , w h t h nt r i s t h s cu d ocr qi ce . i u m n a' l u nbv e $. 0 vl i t ee k i ol cu ukr

          E cn o i c I m at o t h U S o m pc n e . .

          U n f o t ua e y t h t a i ff anucd o Cnd, M x c, ad Ci n p oe a b od bsd ad cm r ees v a w f er e ( ap oi m t e y r ntl, e r snone n aaa eio n harvdsra-ae n ophnies e ad prx al 4 3 o a l U . gos i m o t s . Ti s w l l i kl y cue %f l . S od pr ) h i l e as n er - i mei a e spl y ca n d s ut i os a mdt up hi irp n i n a nm e o i nut r i e ( m t o vh c e ad u br f ds s or eilsn p a t s t h m s ov os sc o t o w t c) , r e ot bi u etr a h s hr t ae o gs o sm p out s i n s o e, ad a f o e rdc trs n n er - t e mr i c si k a r p epe f r m n i m o t e gos f r o o ay pr dod m A m r i c' s t h e l a gs t r d n pr t nr s W a s epc a us i n i n e a re ret ai ga e . e l o xet n pwg fia ni a m r kt vl a i l i t n cl a e ot y a m r kt p i c n r ee s t o t h nw s ae r i g st eely e vl v n m c ocnm l adc a p, ad i nr esd pl i c ucr t a n y oig areooic ns e n c ae o y ne i t.

          I no r pr a i n t h U . t a i ff nr ess ad r e a i a i o f r o C nd ad M x c anucd s f a , ad asmg t hs h ge t a i ff r e a n i n c ot g e . S r i c ae n tl t n maaan eionone o r n suin eeihr r s m i p l ae a f u l ya , w a e c l er er m a r k n dw or bsl i n U S GP g ot h f o eat f o f u l -er 22 b 0 4 pt s t o 1 8 i gonu ae e . . D rw rcs r l ya 05y. p . % ad t h 22 cl l b 0 2 n e06a y. p p s t o 1 8 , w i l e t . % h l it i n or cr PE i na i o et i m t e b 0 4 pt s i n 22 t o 3 0 f gu oeC flt ns asy. p 05 .% ad b 0 3 pt s i n 22 t o 2 7 . O a Q / 4 bs s f o n y. p 06 . % n 4Q ai r 2 05 , w se g o t h a 1 4 , dw f r o 2 0 p ei os y ad cr e PE i na i o a a h ge 3 2 i nt ed o 2 5 . 2 ee rw t .%on m.%rvul, n o C flt nt i hr .%s a f . %

          N o t e t ee f o eat cags a e , hs rcs hne r p r e i ma y l i nr ad n c ol d m v cni dr al y i n t h w es ad m n h aed u oeoseb e ek n otsha de t fiac a m r kt u onnil ae b ea v i or , a w l l a m nt a y ad ficl r ec i os ad i f t h nw a i ff p oe so t e - l i vd t hn asm d o ad t i oa t a i ff ad h u s e s oe r n sa at n, n ee tr srv hr r e a su e, r di nl r sn r e a i a i os a e anucd Sol d t h U S ami s r a i o b odn t h t r ae w r t o o hr nt i os i nl ui n m c o Er oe a i t hs tl t n r none. hu e . . d i nt t n rae e d a t e a n, cdg uhf up, s a t h et ee, t h eoo i c hr mi l l ecl a e ad w w l ne t o r ei s t or f o eat . O t h o hr hn, a psi b e er l y w hr a a o t a i ff rand ecnm a w sat, n e il ed vi u rcs n ete ad osl a itdwl f r s w o u d st t h U . eoo y bc o cu s f o ao hr sl i d ya o g o t h l e e.S cnm ak nore r nte o er f rw.

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              • M a r c 1: 2%n a l U S i m o t s o s el ad a u i nm r ea d es o cut r y o o i g n h2 5 o l . . pr f te n l mu ( grl s f on f r i )
              • A p r i l 1 : P ei dn T u p r ee vs t h e r eo t s t ht w l l i kl y r eo m n t a i ff bsd o Sc i o 21 ( sf eur d , Sc i o 22 rset rm cie re pr a i l e cmed r sae net n0 aga ) et n3 ( nt i oa scr i t y ad Sc i o 31 ( uf a r t r ae p at i cs a nl eu ) n et n0 n i d rc e)
              • A p r i l 2 : t e dt e h gl i gt e b P ei dn T u p f o pt et i a r ei p oa t a i ff a w l l a pt et i a l ei e o l u br , at o, h a i h h d y rs et rm r o n l crcl r ss e son l vsn m e u s p hr m c et i cl s si p, ad smodc o s a a u a, hs n e icnutr

              N o t e t a C nd w l hv a nwr i m Mi s e a t e t h L br a l edr si p vt e t h s Sna ( M r c 9 . Pr l i a et r eu e o M r c 2 ht aaa il ae e P e intr f r ei e l ae h o i udy ah) a m n sm sn ah4 w i t a gnr a e et i o epc e t o b cl l e so. h eel lc nxetd ea don

              P l es se or p ei os r eer c o t h t a i ff : aee u rvu sahn e r s

              • T a i ff r i d c: Cs ad Cas i n t h At o I nut r y r G l ok ot n ho e u ds ( ou, Fb ur y 2, 22) Fcs era 8 05
              • T r ae W r I m at : F r s Ps d a pc i t as ( cnFC T S Fb ur y 2 EooA , era )
              • T h ' A e i c F r s T ae Pl i c' Pn e m r ai t rd o y l a ( ou, Jna y 3) Fcs aur 1
              • C a nd' s A l - I m o t at T r i ff o i c R sos aa l pr n a Pl y epne ( ou, Jna y 3) Fcs aur 1
              • W i l l C a nd a Ee r g G t D i l l e? ai nn y e r d ( ou, Jna y 2) Fcs aur 4
              • T e n T r i ffr u h a T t s ( ou, Jna y 1) Fcs aur 7
              • 2 5 Tr i ff : W a I f %a s ht ? ( ou, D cm e 6 22) Fcs eebr , 04

              D i sl ou e csrs

              Y o mh t a s b i n e et e i n u i g l oe trs d

EconoFACTS
March 04, 2025 | 09:35
Trade War Impact: Take Two
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